Swung On and Missed: Managerial Miscue of the Night (Bill James is right again)

In the 1984 Bill James's Baseball Abstract, James discussed a quote from then-White Sox Manager Tony LaRussa. Known as The Boy Genius (because we all know that a law degree makes you brilliant), LaRussa’s “Winning Ugly” team had been thrown out of the base paths a couple of times during Chicago's unsuccessful 1983 AL Championship Series with the Baltimore Orioles. LaRussa said something to the effect of, "We took the extra base during the season, and we can't change the way we play in the playoffs." James wrote something to the effect of, "You must change the way you play when you are playing against the best teams. The things you do during the 162-game season won't always work in the postseason."

Tonight, Ozzie Guillen set his team loose on the base paths and saw them thrown out twice. He also insisted on keeping the bunt on in the bottom of the ninth inning with a pinch runner on first and no outs. As a former true believer that the bunt was almost always the waste of a precious out for the smaller gain of a base, I have come around to the notion that there are times when it is a good, wise play. Here, Chone Figgins was playing about 30 feet from home plate and KRod was throwing BBs down the middle of the plate (eschewing his devastating curveball), however, because they KNEW that Aaron Rowand was going to bunt. Figgins, KRod, and Mike Scioscia knew that Rowand would bunt, even with one strike, even though Podsednik had been unable to bunt in the 8th on Scott Shields, because Rowand was telegraphing it and because everyone in the park and everyone watching felt confident that Ozzie Guillen would not take the bunt off. The White Sox had been playing tight all night. Maybe Guillen thought that bunting was the best way to win in that particular situation. More likely, he thought, “This is how we play. We aren’t changing now.”

Chicago played this way all year, but it killed them tonight:

5th: Podsednik thrown out stealing when Scioscia called for a pitchout.
6th: Jermaine Dye -- 31 home runs on the year -- pops up a bunt to lead of an inning.
7th: AJ Pierzynski is thrown out stealing by five feet with one out.
8th: Podsednik fouls off two bunt attempts before striking out.
9th: Rowand drills his bunt right to Figgins, who almost turns a double play with Adam Kennedy.

As much as Scioscia loves small ball as well, I would suspect that he would have taken the bunt off if Crede had been playing as close to the plate as Figgins was.

It is always dangerous to extrapolate too much from one baseball game. That won't stop me here. I get the sense that the White Sox and the Angels play similar games: good starting pitching, very good bullpens, good defense, and managers who like to play "small ball" and who try to steal bases more than is wise. Scioscia likes to play veterans at any expense. (See the perceptive Matt Welch for the best analysis of the Angels – his comments about game 5 of the Angels-Yankees series brought new things to light.) And Ozzie loves to steal and bunt (sacrifice, squeeze, drag, you name it).

None of this will matter if Vlad the Impaler begins wreaking havoc, or if Paul Konerko and Carl Everett start taking apart the exhausted Angel bullpen. But if this series comes down to the small ball that both managers love, then I’ll be interested to see if Ozzie is willing to adapt to the strategy that got him there.